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COP28, emissions, fossil fuel profits and the Earth climate: "Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and global warming accelerates, actions to counter it are lacking or slow." On the sidelines of COP28, Roberto Buizza's contribution

Publication date: 11.12.2023
Per la prima volta in due giorni del 2023 il riscaldamento medio globale ha superato 2.0oC
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"As representatives from all countries meet at the COP28 meeting to discuss how to tackle climate change, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and global warming accelerates. Concrete actions are either completely lacking, or if they are taken, they are too weak and too slow": the contribution by Roberto Buizza (Full Professor, The lnterdisciplinary Research Center on Sustainability and Climate of the Sant'Anna School) 

On 6 December 2023, the Copernicus Climate Change Service/European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (C3S/ECMWF) reported that November 2023 was the November with the highest global average temperature since 1980. With November, the 6 months from June 2023 were all characterized by the highest global average temperature since 1980. This confirms that 2023 will most likely be the warmest year since 1980, with very likely a warming of about 1.4oC degrees compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). 

It is useful to recall some data published in recent days on greenhouse gas emissions, the state of the climate, and the profits of major oil companies. Unfortunately, these figures indicate that global fossil fuel production continues to grow, oil companies continue to increase their profits, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the atmosphere continues to rise, and the global average temperature continues to rise. 

In numbers, that's what the facts say.

Emissions:

  • +1.1%: estimate of the possible increase in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 compared to 2022 related to fossil fuels and land use (GCB data);
  • +1.3%: increase in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 compared to 2021 (GCB data);

Concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere:

  • +0.4%: increase in 2023 compared to 2022 in the concentration of CO2 (carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, which peaked at 424 ppm (parts per million) in 2023 (NOAA/GML data);
  • +0.6%: increase in 2023 compared to 2022 in the concentration of CH4 (methane) in the atmosphere), which in 2023 reached a peak of 1,922 ppm (NOAA/GML data);

Fossil Fuel Production:

  • +4.2%: increase in fuel oil production in 2022, compared to 2021 (OWID data);
  • +7.4%: increase in coal production in 2022 compared to 2021 (OWID data);

Subsidies, fossil fuel profits, and 'Loss and Damage' fund:

  • +28%: the increase in global fossil fuel subsidies in 2022 compared to 2020 (IMF estimate)
  • 300 b$ (billion dollars): profits of the 15 largest oil companies in 2022;
  • 100+ b$ (400-1,000 b$): estimated value of the 'Loss and Damage' fund decided at COP27 (COP data)

Global Warming:

  • +0.25oC: the increase in the global average temperature forecast for 2023 compared to 2022 (C3S data);
  • +1.4oC: the increase in the global average temperature compared to the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) projected for 2023 (C3S data);
  • All months from June to November were characterized by the highest global average temperature ever recorded since 1980; 2023 is expected to be the warmest year since 1980 (C3S data).

We report further information on this data below.

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions

Global Carbon Budget (GCB) has just released estimates for 2023 showing that global fossil fuel-related emissions grew by 1.1% again this year compared to 2022. GCB's report predicts that total global CO2 emissions (related to fossil fuel use, and land) will be 40.9 billion tons (Gt) in 2023. This is roughly identical to 2022 and is part of a 10-year plateau, a far cry from the sharp emissions reductions that are urgently needed to meet global climate goals.

The European Commission reports that in 2022 global greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors (not only related to fossil fuels and land use) were 53.7 Gt-CO2-eq (billion tons of CO2 equivalent emissions), about 1.3% more than in 2021 (data from EDGAR, Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research of the European Union).

  1. Fossil fuel production

Our World in Data reports that global fossil fuel production continues to grow, reaching 51,225 TWh (Tera Watt per hour) for fuel oil (+4.2% compared to 2021), 48,490 TWh for coal (+7.4% compared to 2021), and 40,438 TWh for gas (-0.2% compared to 2021). The data indicates that if we look at the last 10 years, on average oil, coal and gas production has increased annually by 0.8%, 0.7% and 2%, respectively.

  1. Fuel subsidies

Fossil fuel subsidies are introduced to keep prices low, and are classified into explicit and implicit subsidies. Explicit subsidies occur when the retail price is lower than the cost of sourcing a fuel. Implicit subsidies occur when the retail price does not include external costs, including ordinary consumption tax.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that globally, fossil fuel subsidies amounted to 7,000 b$ in 2022, or 7.1% of global GDP, an increase of 2,000 b$ since 2020 linked to government support due to soaring energy prices (subsidies were 5,000 b$ in 2019, pre-pandemic and pre-energy crisis). IMF expects subsidies to decline in the near term as energy price support policies ease and international prices fall, before rising to 8,200 b$ by 2030. 18% of 2022 subsidies reflect under-invoicing of procurement costs (explicit subsidies) and 82% under-invoicing of environmental costs and waiver of consumption taxes (implicit subsidies), with the share of explicit falling to 8% by 2030.

  1. Profits of the major oil companies

Reuters reported that the world's largest oil companies more than doubled their profits in 2022, with the 6 largest companies reporting profits of 219 b$. Statista reports that in 2022, the world's top 15 oil companies reported profits of around 300 b$ (with individual values between 7 and 49 b$). It also reports that in the first months of 2023, the profits of four of the largest oil companies are still higher than in the first months of 2022. Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) reports that profits  will also be substantial in 2023, and that the oil industry continues to plan future expansions of fossil fuel extractions.

  1. 'Loss and Damage Fund’

One of the key outcomes of COP27 (Sharm El Sheikh, 2022) was the decision by countries to establish and operationalize a 'Loss and Damage Fund’, particularly for nations most vulnerable to the climate crisis. There has been talk of a fund of about 100 b$ per year, a figure considered too low by the countries most affected by extreme events, whose frequency and intensity has been increasing due to climate change. In fact, the most affected countries speak of the need to create a fund of at least 300-400 b$ per year, ideally 1,000 b$ per year, to be able to really help them deal with the consequences of climate change, to which they have not contributed much. The establishment of this fund was decided during COP27, but how much governments are ready to make available is yet to be defined, and is one of the points under discussion at the COP28 meeting (Dubai, 2023). It is interesting to contrast these figures with the profits of the major oil companies alone, and with the annual global subsidies that governments devote to fossil fuels, which we discussed above. 

  1. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

The Global Monitoring Laboratory of the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration on Mauna Loa (GML/NOAA) reported a peak atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of 424 ppm (parts per million) in 2023, an increase of 0.4% compared to 2022. For methane (CH4), it peaked at around 1,922 ppm, an increase of 0.6% compared to 2022.

  1. State of the climate

On 6 December, the Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that November 2023 was the November with the highest global average temperature since 1980. With November, the 6 months from June 2023 were all characterized by the highest global average temperature since 1980. A figure that confirms that 2023 will most likely be the warmest year since 1980, with a warming of about 1.4oC degrees compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). 

Fig. 1 (cover photo) from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S; a European body of which Italy and the United Kingdom are founding states and Member States), shows that for the first time in two days in 2023 the average global warming exceeded 2.0oC. This is the statement on the state of the climate by Carlo Buontempo, Director of C3S: "The ERA5 record now contains two days when global temperatures exceed the pre-industrial level by more than 2.0°C.   The fact that this comes in the same month that world leaders will gather to take stock of progress towards meeting the commitments of the Paris Agreement at COP28 sends a very clear message: the time has come for definitive action to tackle climate change. ... While exceeding the 2.0°C threshold for a certain number of days does not mean that we have breached the goals of the Paris Agreement, the more often we exceed this threshold, the more severe the cumulative effects of these violations will become."

  1. In conclusions

The only way to limit future warming is to immediately and substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, the numbers and facts reported indicate that globally, on the contrary, fossil fuels continue to be extracted and burned, which cause an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which causes global warming. 

Fig. 2 (in gallery) shows that from 1990 to 2021, global greenhouse gas emissions increased from 37.8 to 54.5 Gt CO2-eq. Over the past 10 years, from 2012 to 2021, they have risen by an average of 2.4% each year. The figure shows two emissions projections if global emissions were reduced from 2022 to 2050 each year by 2% (red line) or 5% (blue line). It is clear that even with a reduction of 5% per year it would not be possible to reach the zero level, but 12 Gt would continue to be emitted (a reduction of 78% compared to the 2021 value). This indicates that not only does it be necessary to reverse the trend from a growth of 2.4% to a decrease, but it is necessary to accelerate the transition, in order to achieve reductions of at least 5%.

To date, alternative methods to reducing emissions such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) have been shown to absorb only a small percentage of the emissions they serve. For the future, it is estimated that at best they will be able to absorb between 5% and 15% of global emissions. It is also estimated that natural greenhouse gas absorption systems ('Natural Based Solutions', NBS), for example linked to reforestation, will contribute to an absorption of about 5% of global emissions. These estimates indicate that even under the most optimistic scenarios, current emissions need to be reduced by at least 80% if the net-zero emissions target is to be achieved. In essence, we need to push for a  'phase out' of  all fossil fuels (coal, fuel oil and methane) as soon as possible, in order to achieve the global goal of 'net-zero emissions' by 2050.

Unfortunately, instead of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to try to limit future warming, the reported data indicate that more and more fossil fuels continue to be extracted globally, causing a continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions and therefore their accumulation in the atmosphere, which cause a continuous increase in global warming.

For further information, please refer the reader to:

Gallery

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